1.     Background and basic idea of the researchDangerous natural processes and disasters, which intheir intensity, scale and duration can have a negative impact on people’slivelihoods, the functioning of economic objects and the environment. In themedium and long term, the consequences of the disaster affect all major sectorsof the economy, including agriculture. Agriculture and everything that itincludes is not only crucial for farmers, but remains the main source of theirlivelihoods.  Huge damage is attributableto the agricultural sector caused by natural disasters such as drought, floods,storms or tsunamis, these losses often fall on the shoulders of poor rural andsemi-rural communities that do not have insurance and sufficient financialresources necessary to restore lost livelihoods.

The agrarian sector usuallyaccounts for more than 80 percent of damage and losses due to naturaldisasters, which once again underscores the fact that agriculture is one thefirst victims of climate change. Other negative consequences for agricultureare soil degradation, water scarcity, depletion of natural resources andothers. There are direct and indirect negative impacts of natural disasters onthe agriculture sector: Typhoons, floods and droughts have the potential toreduce farm productivity; damage farm inputs, infrastructure, and limit farmplanting options. Furthermore, typhoons and floods can damage farm supplyroutes and cause death or injury to farm workers. As a consequence, thesedirect and negative factors can further lead to indirect and negative impactson agriculture and the economy as a whole. Specifically, as a result oftyphoons, floods and droughts, the overall cost of agricultural productionincreases; agricultural production output declines; food supply falls and, as aresult, food prices rise. Taken together, the direct and indirect negativeimpacts on agriculture threaten food security in the affected areas (Danilo C. Israel, 2014, Impacts from and State Responses to Natural Disastersin the Philippines).

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This paper aims to address the following researchquestions:1)     Whatare the factors affecting agriculture assets of rural households, with aspecific focus on weather shocks and natural hazards perceived by ruralhouseholds? 2)     Whatis your major fear with regards to natural disasters?3)     Howmuch do these natural hazards affect your agricultural activities? Answeringthese questions provides useful information on how the agricultural sector canreduce losses from the impact of natural disasters in rural Vietnam.Agriculture is the key economic sector of Vietnam,which accounts for more than 18% of the country’s total GDP. About half of theVietnamese working age population work in this area, and mainly these arefamily farms. Climate change affects the regions of Vietnam in different ways,with serious consequences for agriculture, forestry and fisheries. In such anenvironment, the search for measures to adapt to climate change is the mainpriority of combating them.

In agriculture, adaptation to climate change iscarried out at different levels. The latest data, based on a severe drought andEl Niño between 2015 and 2016, shows that millions of Vietnamese farmerssuffered huge losses (Tuoi Tre News, June 7, 2017,). If there is no mechanismto combat long-term climate change, social and economic development in Vietnamwill rapidly decline, Agriculture products occupy a prominent place inVietnamese exports and national budget revenues – about 70% of the crop is soldabroad. The presence in the country of large areas of untreated virgin lands,and on the other hand – of unemployed people in overcrowded villages leaves agreat scope for development to agriculture.Among the main challenges facing the agriculturesector in Vietnam is its vulnerability to the inherent climate volatilitywithin the region, as well as global climate change. In this regard, the mostimportant task is to develop measures to reduce the risk of emergencies inagriculture, as well as to find ways to improve the sustainability ofagricultural production to natural disasters. World practice has proved theeffectiveness of using agricultural insurance to protect agricultural producersfrom the effects of natural disasters.It is necessary to study the specifics of agriculture,finding possible ways of reducing the damage caused by natural hazards.

 2.     Short literature review to identify gaps in researchand justify your researchIt is widely recognized that the agricultural sectoris vulnerable to natural disasters and other extreme weather shocks. Theseshocks hit local production and availability of food, contributing to risingfood prices and destroying local livelihoods(FAO).

Itis, however, difficult to exactly assess the impacts of natural hazards on theagricultural sector at the regional level. It is also not possible to obtaininformation specific to communes or villages without undertaking systematicsurveys. However, it is possible to find data on damage caused by naturaldisasters, the effects of floods and droughts on agricultural productionactivities in recent years in terms of losses to rice and paddy fields, andagricultural infrastructure systems as well as farmer’s lives.According to the Vietnam Central Committee for Floodand Storm Control (CCFSC), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development(MARD), flooding and damage amounted to nearly 40,000 ha for rice and paddyfields, 55,000 ha for lost or damaged secondary crops, and 11,000 ha for floodedcorn and sugarcane crops. (Nguyen Tuan Anh, (NTS Centre) RSIS, 2016).In 2050, total GDP of Vietnam could be reduced by0.

7%–2.4% as a result of climate change impacts on agriculture (World Bank2010). Some 1.1 million ha, or 70% of land under cultivation in the coastalareas, are threatened by a sea-level rise of 1 m and resulting saltwaterintrusion, of which more than 930,000 ha is in the Mekong Delta.

Kien Giang isthe most affected province, with almost 75% of its cultivation land beingthreatened (IMHEN 2010). The International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI) projects the impact of a sea-level rise of 1 m to be greater, resultingin over 2 million ha of lost land for crop cultivation (ADB and IFPRI 2009). By2030, rising sea levels in the delta would expose 45% of the land to extremesalinization and crop damage, with rice productivity falling by 9% (UnitedNations Development Programme 2007).

Also, climate change will affecttemperature and precipitation patterns, both with a direct effect on cropproduction and indirect effects through changes in irrigation wateravailability and potential evapotranspiration.Predicted Climate Change Impacts in Viet NamShort term: Reduced agricultural land and productivityin coastal and other areas prone to flooding and erosionMedium term: More extensive saline intrusion reducingwater quality for agriculture, drinking, and industrial uses due to reduced dryseason rainfall and flow along with sea-level rise; Increased energy and waterconsumption due to increases in temperatureLong term: Permanent losses of land for cultivationand aquaculture due to increased intensity and duration of drought periods insome areas; Changes in the ecosystems and failure of some agricultural cropspecies due to increased temperatures (Mekong River Commission. 2009)  3.     MethodologyMethodical approaches to the assessment of damage fromnatural disasters and shocks in agriculture.

To create a society that is resistant to naturaldisasters and to prevent economic and social losses in agriculture, it is veryimportant to ensure the participation of farmers at all levels of the disasterrisk reduction strategy. Activities related to disaster risk reduction beginwith an analysis of the elements of risk: the degree of danger, the degree ofvulnerability and the level of sustainability.As a first step, the expenditure on agriculture inVietnam and the percentage of these farms facing catastrophic recovery costswill be compared between 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2016.

The costs of restorationwill be measured (for example, the purchase of equipment, the costs ofrestoring the soil) to the total costs of agricultural enterprises in aparticular year. The considered period of time should cover at least five tosix years of the observed activity of households. Also, the dynamics of somehypothetical determinants of recovery costs will be considered, including theexperience of households in relation to shocks related to natural disasters andnot related to natural disasters, the share of dependent family members, theage structure of households, the level of education, the achievement ofhouseholds, the overall socio- the economic status of households, the size ofagriculture and a number of additional factors related to agriculture andlocation. As a second step to assess the impact of these factors on health carecosts, the damage will be calculated. The procedure for determining directdamage, regardless of the type of natural disasters, has a singlemethodological basis. The magnitude of economic damage depends primarily on thedegree and degree of destruction of agricultural objects (property), loss ofproduction and animals. Calculation of economic damage caused to agricultural productionby natural disasters is determined by the formula:Ved = Vn + Umn + Uzh + Urb + Winf + Zacwhere: Ved – economic damage from loss of crops;Upp – economic damage from the death of perennialplantations;Uli – economic damage to livestock;Uff – economic damage in fish farming;Winf – the economic damage caused to theinfrastructure of agriculture;Zro – the cost of rescue operations.

 4.     Required dataIn this paper we use panel data collected in threeprovinces of Vietnam in four years (2010, 2011, 2013 and 2016) to assess therole of farming in reducing losses and to investigate the factors affectingagriculture. Our study area includes three provinces from Vietnam, namely HaTinh, Thua Thien Hue, and Dak Lak. The impact of natural hazards on agricultureand examine the determinants of agriculture, with a specific focus on weathershocks faced by rural households during the last six years.The first stage is obtaining data the number ofhouseholds that were engaged in six provinces in agricultural activities toinvestigate the extent and the determinants of impact natural hazards inagriculture and farmers. The surveys will be undertaken in 2010, 2011,2013 and2016. This will allow us to establish a panel dataset of 2200 householder from220 villages of these three provinces over six years. Most people in the regionengage in agricultural activities.

  Fourhousehold questionnaires will be used to collect data for the project. Thehousehold questionnaire contains sections on the demographic, economic andsocial situation of households. This includes livelihood activities such asfarming, non-farm self-employment. Regarding shocks, we consider various perceived shock events that thehouseholds have experienced during the last six years. Weather shocks containfloods, droughts, unusually heavy rainfall, and storms.

This study will use also secondary data frominstitutional sources. Data on floods and droughts, national and regional, datafor affected areas. Data on recent damage by agricultural commodity in terms ofproduction in metric tons, cost of production, and area in hectares caused bytyphoons, floods and droughts. Data on provincial quantities and prices forrice.The following sections of the household questionnaire(in accordance with the HHQ 2016 section plan) will require:Section 1 (Survey Information): to obtain data on thelocation of householdsSection 2.1; 2.2; 2.4 (Household members, education,household dynamics): Obtain data on sex, age, ethnicity, profession, education,as well as data migration activities and sent / received remittances Section 3.

1(“Shock”): to obtain data on experience and consequences – and notrelated to unhealthy shock Section 4.1(Land): Obtaining data on the land of households that are an important(depleting) assetSection 7.1 (Borrowing and lending, state transfers):obtaining data on borrowing for agricultural purposes (for use as analternative dependent variable / pro xy for catastrophic costs of recovery fromnatural disasters). Section 8(Household Expenditures): to obtain the data necessary to calculate the shareof two agricultural costs associated with post natural disasters (for example,the purchase of equipment.) Of the total household expenditure.Section 9.1 and 9.

2 (Household and Housing Conditions):Obtain the data necessary to calculate the index of assets. Aggregate data (ifany): household income, household consumption, asset), household debt level.The minimum number of panel waves from which data are needed is 3-4, but morepanel waves will improve the reliability of statistical results. 5.     Expected resultsAn important development goal for the agriculturesector is an increased resilience to climate change risks. With a rapidlyincreasing population and demand for food, another major goal should beimproving food security. To attain these two goals and other objectives withinthe Vietnams’ Agriculture is necessary:a) To speed up agricultural and ruralindustrialization and modernization, apply scientific and technologicaladvances to agricultural production. To enhance the scientific and technologypotential in agriculture to raise the productivity and incomes of agriculture;b) To restructure production and population plan toadapt to natural conditions, to change crop plants mechanisms;For the local people, with their practical experience,adapting to changes following natural hazards would include solutions such asplanting appropriate crops suitable for drought and flood conditions, findingalternative food sources (e.

g., shifting from farming to fishing when the floodseason arrives).Prerequisite for protection from natural disasters isthe knowledge of causes and mechanisms of their occurrence. Knowing the natureof catastrophic events, it is possible to find approaches to its prognosis andconduct protective measures, significantly reducing consequences.

The results of several studies confirm that thenegative impact of disasters is greater in developing countries. The moredeveloped a country, the higher its chances to minimize the damage from anatural disaster and the likelihood of positive effects. References1.     http://www.eria.org/ERIA-DP-2013-15.pdfImpacts of Natural Disasters on Agriculture, Food Security, and NaturalResources and Environment in the Philippines DANILO C. ISRAEL PhilippineInstitute for Development Studies ROEHLANO M.

BRIONES Philippine Institute forDevelopment Studies August 20132.     http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5128e.pdf Theimpact of disasters on agriculture and food security3.     NguyenTuan Anh, ‘Effects of Natural Disasters on Agricultural Production Activitiesin the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area: Case Studies ofRatanakiri (Cambodia), Attapeu (Laos) and Kon Tum (Vietnam) Provinces'(ASEAN-Canada Working Paper Series no. 2, Singapore: Centre for Non-TraditionalSecurity Studies (NTS Centre) RSIS, 2016).4.

     MekongRiver Commission. 2009. Climate Change Adaptation in the Lower Mekong BasinCountries, Regional Synthesis Report. International Centre for EnvironmentalManagement, Ha Noi.