Background and basic idea of the research

Dangerous natural processes and disasters, which in
their intensity, scale and duration can have a negative impact on people’s
livelihoods, the functioning of economic objects and the environment. In the
medium and long term, the consequences of the disaster affect all major sectors
of the economy, including agriculture. Agriculture and everything that it
includes is not only crucial for farmers, but remains the main source of their
livelihoods.  Huge damage is attributable
to the agricultural sector caused by natural disasters such as drought, floods,
storms or tsunamis, these losses often fall on the shoulders of poor rural and
semi-rural communities that do not have insurance and sufficient financial
resources necessary to restore lost livelihoods. The agrarian sector usually
accounts for more than 80 percent of damage and losses due to natural
disasters, which once again underscores the fact that agriculture is one the
first victims of climate change. Other negative consequences for agriculture
are soil degradation, water scarcity, depletion of natural resources and
others. There are direct and indirect negative impacts of natural disasters on
the agriculture sector: Typhoons, floods and droughts have the potential to
reduce farm productivity; damage farm inputs, infrastructure, and limit farm
planting options. Furthermore, typhoons and floods can damage farm supply
routes and cause death or injury to farm workers. As a consequence, these
direct and negative factors can further lead to indirect and negative impacts
on agriculture and the economy as a whole. Specifically, as a result of
typhoons, floods and droughts, the overall cost of agricultural production
increases; agricultural production output declines; food supply falls and, as a
result, food prices rise. Taken together, the direct and indirect negative
impacts on agriculture threaten food security in the affected areas (Danilo C. Israel, 2014, Impacts from and State Responses to Natural Disasters
in the Philippines).

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This paper aims to address the following research

are the factors affecting agriculture assets of rural households, with a
specific focus on weather shocks and natural hazards perceived by rural

is your major fear with regards to natural disasters?

much do these natural hazards affect your agricultural activities?


these questions provides useful information on how the agricultural sector can
reduce losses from the impact of natural disasters in rural Vietnam.

Agriculture is the key economic sector of Vietnam,
which accounts for more than 18% of the country’s total GDP. About half of the
Vietnamese working age population work in this area, and mainly these are
family farms. Climate change affects the regions of Vietnam in different ways,
with serious consequences for agriculture, forestry and fisheries. In such an
environment, the search for measures to adapt to climate change is the main
priority of combating them. In agriculture, adaptation to climate change is
carried out at different levels. The latest data, based on a severe drought and
El Niño between 2015 and 2016, shows that millions of Vietnamese farmers
suffered huge losses (Tuoi Tre News, June 7, 2017,). If there is no mechanism
to combat long-term climate change, social and economic development in Vietnam
will rapidly decline, Agriculture products occupy a prominent place in
Vietnamese exports and national budget revenues – about 70% of the crop is sold
abroad. The presence in the country of large areas of untreated virgin lands,
and on the other hand – of unemployed people in overcrowded villages leaves a
great scope for development to agriculture.

Among the main challenges facing the agriculture
sector in Vietnam is its vulnerability to the inherent climate volatility
within the region, as well as global climate change. In this regard, the most
important task is to develop measures to reduce the risk of emergencies in
agriculture, as well as to find ways to improve the sustainability of
agricultural production to natural disasters. World practice has proved the
effectiveness of using agricultural insurance to protect agricultural producers
from the effects of natural disasters.

It is necessary to study the specifics of agriculture,
finding possible ways of reducing the damage caused by natural hazards.


Short literature review to identify gaps in research
and justify your research

It is widely recognized that the agricultural sector
is vulnerable to natural disasters and other extreme weather shocks. These
shocks hit local production and availability of food, contributing to rising
food prices and destroying local livelihoods(FAO). It
is, however, difficult to exactly assess the impacts of natural hazards on the
agricultural sector at the regional level. It is also not possible to obtain
information specific to communes or villages without undertaking systematic
surveys. However, it is possible to find data on damage caused by natural
disasters, the effects of floods and droughts on agricultural production
activities in recent years in terms of losses to rice and paddy fields, and
agricultural infrastructure systems as well as farmer’s lives.

According to the Vietnam Central Committee for Flood
and Storm Control (CCFSC), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
(MARD), flooding and damage amounted to nearly 40,000 ha for rice and paddy
fields, 55,000 ha for lost or damaged secondary crops, and 11,000 ha for flooded
corn and sugarcane crops. (Nguyen Tuan Anh, (NTS Centre) RSIS, 2016).

In 2050, total GDP of Vietnam could be reduced by
0.7%–2.4% as a result of climate change impacts on agriculture (World Bank
2010). Some 1.1 million ha, or 70% of land under cultivation in the coastal
areas, are threatened by a sea-level rise of 1 m and resulting saltwater
intrusion, of which more than 930,000 ha is in the Mekong Delta. Kien Giang is
the most affected province, with almost 75% of its cultivation land being
threatened (IMHEN 2010). The International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI) projects the impact of a sea-level rise of 1 m to be greater, resulting
in over 2 million ha of lost land for crop cultivation (ADB and IFPRI 2009). By
2030, rising sea levels in the delta would expose 45% of the land to extreme
salinization and crop damage, with rice productivity falling by 9% (United
Nations Development Programme 2007). Also, climate change will affect
temperature and precipitation patterns, both with a direct effect on crop
production and indirect effects through changes in irrigation water
availability and potential evapotranspiration.

Predicted Climate Change Impacts in Viet Nam

Short term: Reduced agricultural land and productivity
in coastal and other areas prone to flooding and erosion

Medium term: More extensive saline intrusion reducing
water quality for agriculture, drinking, and industrial uses due to reduced dry
season rainfall and flow along with sea-level rise; Increased energy and water
consumption due to increases in temperature

Long term: Permanent losses of land for cultivation
and aquaculture due to increased intensity and duration of drought periods in
some areas; Changes in the ecosystems and failure of some agricultural crop
species due to increased temperatures (Mekong River Commission. 2009)



Methodical approaches to the assessment of damage from
natural disasters and shocks in agriculture.

To create a society that is resistant to natural
disasters and to prevent economic and social losses in agriculture, it is very
important to ensure the participation of farmers at all levels of the disaster
risk reduction strategy. Activities related to disaster risk reduction begin
with an analysis of the elements of risk: the degree of danger, the degree of
vulnerability and the level of sustainability.

As a first step, the expenditure on agriculture in
Vietnam and the percentage of these farms facing catastrophic recovery costs
will be compared between 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2016. The costs of restoration
will be measured (for example, the purchase of equipment, the costs of
restoring the soil) to the total costs of agricultural enterprises in a
particular year. The considered period of time should cover at least five to
six years of the observed activity of households. Also, the dynamics of some
hypothetical determinants of recovery costs will be considered, including the
experience of households in relation to shocks related to natural disasters and
not related to natural disasters, the share of dependent family members, the
age structure of households, the level of education, the achievement of
households, the overall socio- the economic status of households, the size of
agriculture and a number of additional factors related to agriculture and
location. As a second step to assess the impact of these factors on health care
costs, the damage will be calculated. The procedure for determining direct
damage, regardless of the type of natural disasters, has a single
methodological basis. The magnitude of economic damage depends primarily on the
degree and degree of destruction of agricultural objects (property), loss of
production and animals. Calculation of economic damage caused to agricultural production
by natural disasters is determined by the formula:

Ved = Vn + Umn + Uzh + Urb + Winf + Zac

where: Ved – economic damage from loss of crops;

Upp – economic damage from the death of perennial

Uli – economic damage to livestock;

Uff – economic damage in fish farming;

Winf – the economic damage caused to the
infrastructure of agriculture;

Zro – the cost of rescue operations.


Required data

In this paper we use panel data collected in three
provinces of Vietnam in four years (2010, 2011, 2013 and 2016) to assess the
role of farming in reducing losses and to investigate the factors affecting
agriculture. Our study area includes three provinces from Vietnam, namely Ha
Tinh, Thua Thien Hue, and Dak Lak. The impact of natural hazards on agriculture
and examine the determinants of agriculture, with a specific focus on weather
shocks faced by rural households during the last six years.

The first stage is obtaining data the number of
households that were engaged in six provinces in agricultural activities to
investigate the extent and the determinants of impact natural hazards in
agriculture and farmers. The surveys will be undertaken in 2010, 2011,2013 and
2016. This will allow us to establish a panel dataset of 2200 householder from
220 villages of these three provinces over six years. Most people in the region
engage in agricultural activities.  Four
household questionnaires will be used to collect data for the project. The
household questionnaire contains sections on the demographic, economic and
social situation of households. This includes livelihood activities such as
farming, non-farm self-employment. 
Regarding shocks, we consider various perceived shock events that the
households have experienced during the last six years. Weather shocks contain
floods, droughts, unusually heavy rainfall, and storms.

This study will use also secondary data from
institutional sources. Data on floods and droughts, national and regional, data
for affected areas. Data on recent damage by agricultural commodity in terms of
production in metric tons, cost of production, and area in hectares caused by
typhoons, floods and droughts. Data on provincial quantities and prices for

The following sections of the household questionnaire
(in accordance with the HHQ 2016 section plan) will require:

Section 1 (Survey Information): to obtain data on the
location of households

Section 2.1; 2.2; 2.4 (Household members, education,
household dynamics): Obtain data on sex, age, ethnicity, profession, education,
as well as data migration activities and sent / received remittances

 Section 3.1
(“Shock”): to obtain data on experience and consequences – and not
related to unhealthy shock

 Section 4.1
(Land): Obtaining data on the land of households that are an important
(depleting) asset

Section 7.1 (Borrowing and lending, state transfers):
obtaining data on borrowing for agricultural purposes (for use as an
alternative dependent variable / pro xy for catastrophic costs of recovery from
natural disasters).

 Section 8
(Household Expenditures): to obtain the data necessary to calculate the share
of two agricultural costs associated with post natural disasters (for example,
the purchase of equipment.) Of the total household expenditure.

Section 9.1 and 9.2 (Household and Housing Conditions):
Obtain the data necessary to calculate the index of assets. Aggregate data (if
any): household income, household consumption, asset), household debt level.
The minimum number of panel waves from which data are needed is 3-4, but more
panel waves will improve the reliability of statistical results.


Expected results

An important development goal for the agriculture
sector is an increased resilience to climate change risks. With a rapidly
increasing population and demand for food, another major goal should be
improving food security. To attain these two goals and other objectives within
the Vietnams’ Agriculture is necessary:

a) To speed up agricultural and rural
industrialization and modernization, apply scientific and technological
advances to agricultural production. To enhance the scientific and technology
potential in agriculture to raise the productivity and incomes of agriculture;

b) To restructure production and population plan to
adapt to natural conditions, to change crop plants mechanisms;

For the local people, with their practical experience,
adapting to changes following natural hazards would include solutions such as
planting appropriate crops suitable for drought and flood conditions, finding
alternative food sources (e.g., shifting from farming to fishing when the flood
season arrives).

Prerequisite for protection from natural disasters is
the knowledge of causes and mechanisms of their occurrence. Knowing the nature
of catastrophic events, it is possible to find approaches to its prognosis and
conduct protective measures, significantly reducing consequences.

The results of several studies confirm that the
negative impact of disasters is greater in developing countries. The more
developed a country, the higher its chances to minimize the damage from a
natural disaster and the likelihood of positive effects.



Impacts of Natural Disasters on Agriculture, Food Security, and Natural
Resources and Environment in the Philippines DANILO C. ISRAEL Philippine
Institute for Development Studies ROEHLANO M. BRIONES Philippine Institute for
Development Studies August 2013

http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5128e.pdf The
impact of disasters on agriculture and food security

Tuan Anh, ‘Effects of Natural Disasters on Agricultural Production Activities
in the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area: Case Studies of
Ratanakiri (Cambodia), Attapeu (Laos) and Kon Tum (Vietnam) Provinces’
(ASEAN-Canada Working Paper Series no. 2, Singapore: Centre for Non-Traditional
Security Studies (NTS Centre) RSIS, 2016).

River Commission. 2009. Climate Change Adaptation in the Lower Mekong Basin
Countries, Regional Synthesis Report. International Centre for Environmental
Management, Ha Noi.